The impact of Trump's trade policies on investments in the United States

How investors can adapt to a more unstable global environment and identify real opportunities in the U.S. market

Recent political movements in the United States, led by Donald Trump, have once again influenced market expectations and reignited debates over the impact of protectionist and fiscal measures on the global economy.

For investors, especially those seeking exposure to the U.S. market, understanding this landscape is essential for making more informed decisions and identifying opportunities with greater accuracy.

Macroeconomic outlook: slowdown and volatility

In recent years, the global economic environment has come under pressure from a combination of factors:

• Rising inflation, driven by pandemic-era fiscal stimulus packages, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts;
• Interest rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe as a response to inflation control, raising the global cost of credit;
• Tax and trade disputes between countries, intensifying instability for international investments.

Although there is no consensus on a recession, the outlook points to a moderate slowdown. The risks of economic stagnation, particularly in the United States, remain on the radar.

This directly impacts productive sectors, multinationals, and supply chains, requiring strategic reassessments by investors.

Effects on the U.S. real estate market

The real estate sector, highly sensitive to interest rates and economic confidence, is already beginning to show signs of adjustment:

• Price stabilization in regions with strong recent appreciation, such as Florida, Texas, and parts of California;
• Decrease in demand for mortgage credit, given the rise in financing costs;
• Greater selectivity by funds and institutional investors, which may reduce liquidity in the short term;
• Opportunities for cash buyers, especially in niches experiencing price corrections and reduced competition.

This scenario favors well-prepared investors with liquidity and a medium to long-term focus.

A widespread decline in prices is not expected; rather, localized adjustments and a reshaping of the buyer profile are anticipated.

New avenues for financial investments

With rising interest rates in the U.S., fixed income has regained attention, with government bonds offering yields above 4–5% per year.

Equity markets are expected to face increased volatility, pressured by more expensive credit and moderated consumer spending.

Investors should consider:

• Geographic and asset class diversification, reducing concentrated exposure;
• Review of allocation in real assets, such as real estate and commodities, with a focus on fundamentals and liquidity;
• Continuous monitoring of fiscal and regulatory policies in the countries where they operate, to avoid surprises from protectionist or tax measures.

Adaptation will be the competitive advantage

The environment of economic uncertainty demands resilience and flexibility. While the risk of a global recession exists, it is the gradual slowdown, combined with protectionist measures and adjustments in capital flows, that will shape investment opportunities in the coming months.

Investors who review their strategies, monitor macroeconomic indicators, and adjust their portfolios based on clear fundamentals will be better positioned to preserve wealth and identify attractive entry points in strategic assets.

Need support to invest safely in the United States?

Upside Investment has a team ready to guide your decision-making based on solid economic analyses and personalized strategies.

Talk to us and discover how to protect your capital and expand your return opportunities.